Cirkulane 1–1 Dravinja: Result & Stats

Cirkulane

FT

1 – 1

Dravinja

5/9/2021

3. SNL - East · East - Promotion Round - 1Športni park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cirkulane56%

×Draw22%

Dravinja22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CirkulaneExpected goals in this matchDravinja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.14

Cirkulane

1.93

Dravinja

1.14

Cirkulane creates 69% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.75

creates per match

1.78

0.50

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Cirkulane

1.75

Dravinja

1.78

allows per match

Cirkulane

0.50

Dravinja

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cirkulane+0.00on par

Dravinja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirkulane ↓

Dravinja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Cirkulane or draw

78%

Cirkulane or Dravinja

78%

Draw or Dravinja

44%

Winning margin

Cirkulane wins by 2+

32%

Dravinja wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cirkulane 1+ goals

85%

Cirkulane 2+ goals

57%

Cirkulane 3+ goals

30%

Dravinja 1+ goals

68%

Dravinja 2+ goals

32%

Dravinja 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cirkulane (draw refunded)

71%

Dravinja (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cirkulane at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Dravinja away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cirkulane attack 1.75 + Dravinja defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.93

Dravinja attack 1.78 + Cirkulane defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cirkulane scores more

56%

level

22%

Dravinja scores more

22%

Cirkulane at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cirkulane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff