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Circulo Deportivo vs Sansinena — Torneo Federal A 2018

Circulo Deportivo
Circulo Deportivo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sansinena
Sansinena
7/7/2021Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 11Estadio Guillermo Trama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Circulo Deportivo42%
×Draw31%
Sansinena28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Circulo Deportivo
1.13
Sansinena
0.86

Circulo Deportivo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 85 away

creates per match

Circulo Deportivo
0.97
Sansinena
0.76

allows per match

Circulo Deportivo
0.96
Sansinena
1.28

finishing

Circulo Deportivo+0.00on par
Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Circulo Deportivo ↓

Sansinena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Circulo Deportivo or draw
72%
Circulo Deportivo or Sansinena
69%
Draw or Sansinena
58%

Winning margin

Circulo Deportivo wins by 2+
17%
Sansinena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Circulo Deportivo 1+ goals
68%
Circulo Deportivo 2+ goals
31%
Circulo Deportivo 3+ goals
11%
Sansinena 1+ goals
58%
Sansinena 2+ goals
21%
Sansinena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Circulo Deportivo (draw refunded)
60%
Sansinena (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Circulo Deportivo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Circulo Deportivo attack 0.97 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Circulo Deportivo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Circulo Deportivo scores more
42%
level
31%
Sansinena scores more
28%

Circulo Deportivo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Circulo Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Circulo Deportivo 2–1 Sansinena

Circulo Deportivo beat Sansinena 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Trama in Comandante Nicanor Otamendi, Pr. de Buenos Aires.