Circulo Deportivo vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Torneo Federal A 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 83+ matches
Circulo Deportivo41%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Circulo Deportivo creates 28% more chances
Season form · 96 home / 83 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Circulo Deportivo ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Circulo Deportivo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches
Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 83 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Circulo Deportivo attack 0.97 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14
Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.82 + Circulo Deportivo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Circulo Deportivo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Circulo Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Central Norte
Def. de Pronunciamiento
Douglas Haig
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Crucero Del Norte
Union Sunchales
Boca Unidos
CDJU Gualeguaychu
San Martin Formosa
Sportivo Belgrano
Gimnasia Concepción
Villa Mitre
Deportivo Maipu
Huracan Las Heras
Deportivo Madryn
Juventud Unida Univ.Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Sansinena
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Cipolletti
Deportivo Camioneros
Estudiantes S.l.
Sportivo DesamparadosCirculo Deportivo
Sportivo Peñarol
Sol de MayoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Circulo Deportivo host Ferro Carril Oeste LP on Saturday, 20 August 2022 at 18:00. The match is part of the Torneo Federal A 2018/2019 season.
Torneo Federal A: Circulo Deportivo 2–1 Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Circulo Deportivo beat Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on August 20, 2022.
Goals: J. Vivani (33'), I. Enríquez (56' pen), L. Verón (71').
The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Trama in Comandante Nicanor Otamendi, Pr. de Buenos Aires.