Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Circulo Deportivo vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Torneo Federal A 2018

Circulo Deportivo
Circulo Deportivo
CANC
00:00
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
4/12/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 27Estadio Guillermo Trama (Comandante Nicanor Otamendi, Pr. de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Circulo Deportivo41%
×Draw30%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Circulo Deportivo
1.15
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.90

Circulo Deportivo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 86 away

creates per match

Circulo Deportivo
0.97
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.83

allows per match

Circulo Deportivo
0.96
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.33

finishing

Circulo Deportivo+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Circulo Deportivo ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Circulo Deportivo or draw
71%
Circulo Deportivo or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
70%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
59%

Winning margin

Circulo Deportivo wins by 2+
18%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Circulo Deportivo 1+ goals
68%
Circulo Deportivo 2+ goals
32%
Circulo Deportivo 3+ goals
11%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
59%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
23%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Circulo Deportivo (draw refunded)
59%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Circulo Deportivo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Circulo Deportivo attack 0.97 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.83 + Circulo Deportivo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Circulo Deportivo scores more
41%
level
30%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
29%

Circulo Deportivo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Circulo Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Circulo Deportivo face Ferro Carril Oeste LP (Torneo Federal A)

Torneo Federal A returns with Circulo Deportivo hosting Ferro Carril Oeste LP. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Circulo Deportivo host Ferro Carril Oeste LP at Estadio Guillermo Trama (Comandante Nicanor Otamendi, Pr. de Buenos Aires).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.