Cirbonero 1–1 Lourdes: Result & Stats

Cirbonero

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lourdes

10/27/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 10Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Cirbonero59%

×Draw23%

Lourdes18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CirboneroExpected goals in this matchLourdes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.86

Cirbonero

1.76

Lourdes

0.86

Cirbonero creates 105% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 29 away

1.59

creates per match

0.86

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Cirbonero

1.59

Lourdes

0.86

allows per match

Cirbonero

0.86

Lourdes

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cirbonero+0.00on par

Lourdes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirbonero ↓

Lourdes →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cirbonero or draw

82%

Cirbonero or Lourdes

77%

Draw or Lourdes

41%

Winning margin

Cirbonero wins by 2+

33%

Lourdes wins by 2+

Team goals

Cirbonero 1+ goals

83%

Cirbonero 2+ goals

52%

Cirbonero 3+ goals

26%

Lourdes 1+ goals

58%

Lourdes 2+ goals

21%

Lourdes 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cirbonero (draw refunded)

76%

Lourdes (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cirbonero at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Lourdes away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cirbonero attack 1.59 + Lourdes defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.76

Lourdes attack 0.86 + Cirbonero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cirbonero scores more

59%

level

23%

Lourdes scores more

18%

Cirbonero at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff