Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cirbonero vs Lerinés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cirbonero
Cirbonero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lerinés
Lerinés
11/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 12Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cirbonero57%
×Draw24%
Lerinés19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cirbonero
1.68
Lerinés
0.84

Cirbonero creates 100% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cirbonero
1.59
Lerinés
0.82

allows per match

Cirbonero
0.86
Lerinés
1.76

finishing

Cirbonero+0.00on par
Lerinés+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirbonero ↓

Lerinés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cirbonero or draw
81%
Cirbonero or Lerinés
76%
Draw or Lerinés
43%

Winning margin

Cirbonero wins by 2+
32%
Lerinés wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cirbonero 1+ goals
81%
Cirbonero 2+ goals
50%
Cirbonero 3+ goals
24%
Lerinés 1+ goals
57%
Lerinés 2+ goals
21%
Lerinés 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cirbonero (draw refunded)
75%
Lerinés (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cirbonero at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Lerinés away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cirbonero attack 1.59 + Lerinés defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lerinés attack 0.82 + Cirbonero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cirbonero scores more
57%
level
24%
Lerinés scores more
19%

Cirbonero at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cirbonero vs Lerinés

Cirbonero beat Lerinés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Cintruénigo.