Cirbonero 3–1 Corellano: Result & Stats

Cirbonero

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Corellano

2/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 23Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cirbonero56%

×Draw24%

Corellano20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CirboneroExpected goals in this matchCorellano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.93

Cirbonero

1.71

Corellano

0.93

Cirbonero creates 84% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 44 away

1.59

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Cirbonero

1.59

Corellano

1.00

allows per match

Cirbonero

0.86

Corellano

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cirbonero+0.00on par

Corellano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirbonero ↓

Corellano →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cirbonero or draw

80%

Cirbonero or Corellano

76%

Draw or Corellano

44%

Winning margin

Cirbonero wins by 2+

31%

Corellano wins by 2+

Team goals

Cirbonero 1+ goals

82%

Cirbonero 2+ goals

51%

Cirbonero 3+ goals

24%

Corellano 1+ goals

61%

Corellano 2+ goals

24%

Corellano 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cirbonero (draw refunded)

73%

Corellano (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cirbonero at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Corellano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cirbonero attack 1.59 + Corellano defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Corellano attack 1.00 + Cirbonero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cirbonero scores more

56%

level

24%

Corellano scores more

20%

Cirbonero at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff