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Cirbonero vs Avance Ezcabarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cirbonero
Cirbonero
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
2/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 20Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cirbonero52%
×Draw26%
Avance Ezcabarte23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cirbonero
1.54
Avance Ezcabarte
0.92

Cirbonero creates 67% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 64 away

creates per match

Cirbonero
1.59
Avance Ezcabarte
0.97

allows per match

Cirbonero
0.86
Avance Ezcabarte
1.50

finishing

Cirbonero+0.00on par
Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirbonero ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cirbonero or draw
77%
Cirbonero or Avance Ezcabarte
74%
Draw or Avance Ezcabarte
48%

Winning margin

Cirbonero wins by 2+
27%
Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cirbonero 1+ goals
79%
Cirbonero 2+ goals
45%
Cirbonero 3+ goals
20%
Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
60%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
23%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cirbonero (draw refunded)
70%
Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cirbonero at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cirbonero attack 1.59 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Cirbonero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cirbonero scores more
52%
level
26%
Avance Ezcabarte scores more
23%

Cirbonero at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cirbonero 4 – 1 Avance Ezcabarte

Cirbonero beat Avance Ezcabarte 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Cintruénigo.