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Cirbonero vs Atlético Artajonés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cirbonero
Cirbonero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
3/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 25Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cirbonero62%
×Draw22%
Atlético Artajonés15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cirbonero
1.81
Atlético Artajonés
0.77

Cirbonero creates 135% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

Cirbonero
1.59
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

allows per match

Cirbonero
0.86
Atlético Artajonés
2.03

finishing

Cirbonero+0.00on par
Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirbonero ↓

Atlético Artajonés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cirbonero or draw
85%
Cirbonero or Atlético Artajonés
78%
Draw or Atlético Artajonés
38%

Winning margin

Cirbonero wins by 2+
36%
Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cirbonero 1+ goals
84%
Cirbonero 2+ goals
54%
Cirbonero 3+ goals
27%
Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
54%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
18%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cirbonero (draw refunded)
80%
Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cirbonero at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cirbonero attack 1.59 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.81

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Cirbonero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cirbonero scores more
62%
level
22%
Atlético Artajonés scores more
15%

Cirbonero at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Cirbonero 1–0 Atlético Artajonés

Cirbonero beat Atlético Artajonés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Cintruénigo.