Cirbonero 2–0 Aoiz: Result & Stats

Cirbonero

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Aoiz

3/15/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 26Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cirbonero51%

×Draw26%

Aoiz23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CirboneroExpected goals in this matchAoiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.90

Cirbonero

1.50

Aoiz

0.90

Cirbonero creates 67% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

1.59

creates per match

0.94

0.86

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Cirbonero

1.59

Aoiz

0.94

allows per match

Cirbonero

0.86

Aoiz

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cirbonero+0.00on par

Aoiz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirbonero ↓

Aoiz →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cirbonero or draw

77%

Cirbonero or Aoiz

74%

Draw or Aoiz

49%

Winning margin

Cirbonero wins by 2+

26%

Aoiz wins by 2+

Team goals

Cirbonero 1+ goals

78%

Cirbonero 2+ goals

44%

Cirbonero 3+ goals

19%

Aoiz 1+ goals

59%

Aoiz 2+ goals

23%

Aoiz 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cirbonero (draw refunded)

69%

Aoiz (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cirbonero at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Aoiz away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cirbonero attack 1.59 + Aoiz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aoiz attack 0.94 + Cirbonero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cirbonero scores more

51%

level

26%

Aoiz scores more

23%

Cirbonero at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff