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Cirbonero vs Alesves — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cirbonero
Cirbonero
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Alesves
Alesves
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 32Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cirbonero60%
×Draw23%
Alesves17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cirbonero
1.77
Alesves
0.82

Cirbonero creates 116% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cirbonero
1.59
Alesves
0.78

allows per match

Cirbonero
0.86
Alesves
1.94

finishing

Cirbonero+0.00on par
Alesves+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cirbonero ↓

Alesves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cirbonero or draw
83%
Cirbonero or Alesves
77%
Draw or Alesves
40%

Winning margin

Cirbonero wins by 2+
34%
Alesves wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cirbonero 1+ goals
83%
Cirbonero 2+ goals
53%
Cirbonero 3+ goals
26%
Alesves 1+ goals
56%
Alesves 2+ goals
20%
Alesves 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cirbonero (draw refunded)
78%
Alesves (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cirbonero at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.86 · 93 matches

Alesves away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cirbonero attack 1.59 + Alesves defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Alesves attack 0.78 + Cirbonero defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cirbonero scores more
60%
level
23%
Alesves scores more
17%

Cirbonero at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cirbonero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cirbonero vs Alesves

Cirbonero beat Alesves 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Cintruénigo.