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Cipolletti vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Cipolletti
Cipolletti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
3/27/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 1Estadio La Visera de Cemento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cipolletti53%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Peñarol20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cipolletti
1.47
Sportivo Peñarol
0.80

Cipolletti creates 84% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 62 away

creates per match

Cipolletti
1.28
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Cipolletti
0.73
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Cipolletti+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cipolletti ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cipolletti or draw
80%
Cipolletti or Sportivo Peñarol
73%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
47%

Winning margin

Cipolletti wins by 2+
27%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cipolletti 1+ goals
77%
Cipolletti 2+ goals
43%
Cipolletti 3+ goals
18%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
55%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
19%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cipolletti (draw refunded)
72%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cipolletti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 110 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cipolletti attack 1.28 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Cipolletti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cipolletti scores more
53%
level
27%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
20%

Cipolletti at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cipolletti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cipolletti vs Sportivo Peñarol

Cipolletti and Sportivo Peñarol drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Visera de Cemento in Cipolletti, Provincia de Río Negro.