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Cipolletti vs Kimberley Mar del Plata — Torneo Federal A 2018

Cipolletti
Cipolletti
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kimberley Mar del Plata
Kimberley Mar del Plata
10/11/2025Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio La Visera de Cemento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cipolletti45%
×Draw31%
Kimberley Mar del Plata25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cipolletti
1.16
Kimberley Mar del Plata
0.78

Cipolletti creates 49% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cipolletti
1.28
Kimberley Mar del Plata
0.84

allows per match

Cipolletti
0.73
Kimberley Mar del Plata
1.03

finishing

Cipolletti+0.00on par
Kimberley Mar del Plata+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cipolletti ↓

Kimberley Mar del Plata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cipolletti or draw
75%
Cipolletti or Kimberley Mar del Plata
69%
Draw or Kimberley Mar del Plata
55%

Winning margin

Cipolletti wins by 2+
19%
Kimberley Mar del Plata wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cipolletti 1+ goals
69%
Cipolletti 2+ goals
32%
Cipolletti 3+ goals
11%
Kimberley Mar del Plata 1+ goals
54%
Kimberley Mar del Plata 2+ goals
18%
Kimberley Mar del Plata 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cipolletti (draw refunded)
64%
Kimberley Mar del Plata (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cipolletti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 110 matches

Kimberley Mar del Plata away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cipolletti attack 1.28 + Kimberley Mar del Plata defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kimberley Mar del Plata attack 0.84 + Cipolletti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cipolletti scores more
45%
level
31%
Kimberley Mar del Plata scores more
25%

Cipolletti at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cipolletti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cipolletti vs Kimberley Mar del Plata

Cipolletti and Kimberley Mar del Plata drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Visera de Cemento in Cipolletti.