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Cipolletti vs Deportivo Roca — Copa Argentina 2018

Cipolletti
Cipolletti
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
1/21/2019Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st Qualifying RoundEstadio La Visera de Cemento (Cipolletti, Provincia de Río Negro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cipolletti29%
×Draw37%
Deportivo Roca34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cipolletti
0.70
Deportivo Roca
0.78

Deportivo Roca creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cipolletti
0.40
Deportivo Roca
0.75

allows per match

Cipolletti
0.80
Deportivo Roca
1.00

finishing

Cipolletti+0.00on par
Deportivo Roca+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cipolletti ↓

Deportivo Roca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–118%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Cipolletti or draw
66%
Cipolletti or Deportivo Roca
63%
Draw or Deportivo Roca
71%

Winning margin

Cipolletti wins by 2+
8%
Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cipolletti 1+ goals
50%
Cipolletti 2+ goals
16%
Cipolletti 3+ goals
3%
Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cipolletti (draw refunded)
46%
Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cipolletti at home — creates 0.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Deportivo Roca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cipolletti attack 0.40 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Deportivo Roca attack 0.75 + Cipolletti defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Cipolletti scores more
29%
level
37%
Deportivo Roca scores more
34%

Deportivo Roca at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Deportivo Roca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cipolletti vs Deportivo Roca

Deportivo Roca beat Cipolletti 2-0 in Copa Argentina on January 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Visera de Cemento (Cipolletti, Provincia de Río Negro).