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Cipolletti vs CAI — Torneo Federal A 2018

Cipolletti
Cipolletti
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
CAI
CAI
O. Negri 57'
K. Guajardo 45+2'
M. Brito 80'
J. Aynol 48'
9/20/2014Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 5Estadio La Visera de Cemento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cipolletti48%
×Draw26%
CAI26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cipolletti
1.47
CAI
1.00

Cipolletti creates 47% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 26 away

creates per match

Cipolletti
1.32
CAI
1.23

allows per match

Cipolletti
0.78
CAI
1.62

finishing

Cipolletti+0.00on par
CAI+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cipolletti ↓

CAI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cipolletti or draw
74%
Cipolletti or CAI
74%
Draw or CAI
52%

Winning margin

Cipolletti wins by 2+
24%
CAI wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cipolletti 1+ goals
77%
Cipolletti 2+ goals
43%
Cipolletti 3+ goals
18%
CAI 1+ goals
63%
CAI 2+ goals
26%
CAI 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cipolletti (draw refunded)
65%
CAI (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cipolletti at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.78 · 117 matches

CAI away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cipolletti attack 1.32 + CAI defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

CAI attack 1.23 + Cipolletti defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cipolletti scores more
48%
level
26%
CAI scores more
26%

Cipolletti at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cipolletti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
K. Guajardo
48'
J. Aynol
57'
O. Negri
80'
M. Brito

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Cipolletti 2–2 CAI

Cipolletti and CAI drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on September 20, 2014.

Goals: K. Guajardo (45+2'), J. Aynol (48'), O. Negri (57'), M. Brito (80').

The match was played at Estadio La Visera de Cemento in Cipolletti, Provincia de Río Negro.