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Cimişlia vs Spartanii Selemet — Cupa 2020

Cimişlia
Cimişlia
FT
1 – 5
Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
8/15/2020CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cimişlia36%
×Draw22%
Spartanii Selemet42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cimişlia
1.74
Spartanii Selemet
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cimişlia
1.33
Spartanii Selemet
1.43

allows per match

Cimişlia
2.33
Spartanii Selemet
2.14

finishing

Cimişlia+0.00on par
Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cimişlia ↓

Spartanii Selemet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Cimişlia or draw
58%
Cimişlia or Spartanii Selemet
78%
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
64%

Winning margin

Cimişlia wins by 2+
18%
Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cimişlia 1+ goals
82%
Cimişlia 2+ goals
52%
Cimişlia 3+ goals
25%
Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
85%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
56%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Cimişlia (draw refunded)
46%
Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cimişlia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cimişlia attack 1.33 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.43 + Cimişlia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cimişlia scores more
36%
level
22%
Spartanii Selemet scores more
42%

Spartanii Selemet at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartanii Selemet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cimişlia vs Spartanii Selemet

Spartanii Selemet beat Cimişlia 5-1 in Cupa on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Cimişlia.