Cimarrones 1–1 Venados FC: Result & Stats

Cimarrones

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Venados FC

3/27/2022

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Héroe de Nacozari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Cimarrones49%

×Draw26%

Venados FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CimarronesExpected goals in this matchVenados FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.97

Cimarrones

1.50

Venados FC

0.97

Cimarrones creates 55% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 129 away

1.43

creates per match

0.98

0.96

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Cimarrones

1.43

Venados FC

0.98

allows per match

Cimarrones

0.96

Venados FC

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cimarrones+0.00on par

Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cimarrones ↓

Venados FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cimarrones or draw

76%

Cimarrones or Venados FC

74%

Draw or Venados FC

51%

Winning margin

Cimarrones wins by 2+

25%

Venados FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cimarrones 1+ goals

78%

Cimarrones 2+ goals

44%

Cimarrones 3+ goals

19%

Venados FC 1+ goals

62%

Venados FC 2+ goals

25%

Venados FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cimarrones (draw refunded)

67%

Venados FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cimarrones at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 102 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cimarrones attack 1.43 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Cimarrones defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cimarrones scores more

49%

level

26%

Venados FC scores more

24%

Cimarrones at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cimarrones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff