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Cimarrones vs Tapachula — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cimarrones
Cimarrones
CANC
04:00
Tapachula
Tapachula
4/4/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Héroe de Nacozari (Hermosillo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Cimarrones54%
×Draw23%
Tapachula23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cimarrones
1.79
Tapachula
1.07

Cimarrones creates 67% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 24 away

creates per match

Cimarrones
1.45
Tapachula
1.17

allows per match

Cimarrones
0.97
Tapachula
2.13

finishing

Cimarrones+0.00on par
Tapachula+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cimarrones ↓

Tapachula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cimarrones or draw
77%
Cimarrones or Tapachula
77%
Draw or Tapachula
46%

Winning margin

Cimarrones wins by 2+
30%
Tapachula wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cimarrones 1+ goals
83%
Cimarrones 2+ goals
53%
Cimarrones 3+ goals
26%
Tapachula 1+ goals
66%
Tapachula 2+ goals
29%
Tapachula 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cimarrones (draw refunded)
71%
Tapachula (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cimarrones at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Tapachula away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cimarrones attack 1.45 + Tapachula defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.79

Tapachula attack 1.17 + Cimarrones defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cimarrones scores more
54%
level
23%
Tapachula scores more
23%

Cimarrones at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cimarrones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cimarrones face Tapachula (Liga de Expansión MX)

Liga de Expansión MX returns with Cimarrones hosting Tapachula. Match starts April 4, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cimarrones host Tapachula at Estadio Héroe de Nacozari (Hermosillo).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.