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Cimarrones vs Potros Uaem — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cimarrones
Cimarrones
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Potros Uaem
Potros Uaem
10/27/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Héroe de Nacozari (Hermosillo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Cimarrones46%
×Draw28%
Potros Uaem26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cimarrones
1.32
Potros Uaem
0.91

Cimarrones creates 45% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cimarrones
1.45
Potros Uaem
0.85

allows per match

Cimarrones
0.97
Potros Uaem
1.20

finishing

Cimarrones+0.00on par
Potros Uaem+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cimarrones ↓

Potros Uaem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cimarrones or draw
74%
Cimarrones or Potros Uaem
72%
Draw or Potros Uaem
54%

Winning margin

Cimarrones wins by 2+
21%
Potros Uaem wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cimarrones 1+ goals
73%
Cimarrones 2+ goals
38%
Cimarrones 3+ goals
15%
Potros Uaem 1+ goals
60%
Potros Uaem 2+ goals
23%
Potros Uaem 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cimarrones (draw refunded)
64%
Potros Uaem (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cimarrones at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Potros Uaem away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cimarrones attack 1.45 + Potros Uaem defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Potros Uaem attack 0.85 + Cimarrones defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cimarrones scores more
46%
level
28%
Potros Uaem scores more
26%

Cimarrones at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cimarrones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Cimarrones 0–0 Potros Uaem

Cimarrones and Potros Uaem drew 0-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Héroe de Nacozari (Hermosillo).