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Cimarrones vs Atlante FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cimarrones
Cimarronesadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlante FC
Atlante FC
11/16/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Héroe de Nacozari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Cimarrones40%
×Draw28%
Atlante FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cimarrones
1.27
Atlante FC
1.09

Cimarrones creates 17% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 147 away

creates per match

Cimarrones
1.43
Atlante FC
1.22

allows per match

Cimarrones
0.96
Atlante FC
1.10

finishing

Cimarrones+0.00on par
Atlante FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cimarrones ↓

Atlante FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cimarrones or draw
68%
Cimarrones or Atlante FC
72%
Draw or Atlante FC
60%

Winning margin

Cimarrones wins by 2+
18%
Atlante FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cimarrones 1+ goals
72%
Cimarrones 2+ goals
36%
Cimarrones 3+ goals
14%
Atlante FC 1+ goals
66%
Atlante FC 2+ goals
30%
Atlante FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cimarrones (draw refunded)
56%
Atlante FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cimarrones at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 102 matches

Atlante FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cimarrones attack 1.43 + Atlante FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atlante FC attack 1.22 + Cimarrones defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cimarrones scores more
40%
level
28%
Atlante FC scores more
32%

Cimarrones at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cimarrones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Cimarrones 2–0 Atlante FC

Cimarrones beat Atlante FC 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Héroe de Nacozari in Hermosillo.