Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cigand SE vs Eger — NB III - Northeast 2019

Cigand SE
Cigand SE
FT
1 – 0
Eger
Eger
11/24/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 17Cigánd Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cigand SE61%
×Draw22%
Eger18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cigand SE
1.94
Eger
0.93

Cigand SE creates 109% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 110 away

creates per match

Cigand SE
1.98
Eger
1.23

allows per match

Cigand SE
0.62
Eger
1.89

finishing

Cigand SE+0.00on par
Eger+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cigand SE ↓

Eger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cigand SE or draw
82%
Cigand SE or Eger
78%
Draw or Eger
39%

Winning margin

Cigand SE wins by 2+
36%
Eger wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cigand SE 1+ goals
86%
Cigand SE 2+ goals
58%
Cigand SE 3+ goals
30%
Eger 1+ goals
61%
Eger 2+ goals
24%
Eger 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cigand SE (draw refunded)
78%
Eger (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cigand SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Eger away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.89 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cigand SE attack 1.98 + Eger defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.94

Eger attack 1.23 + Cigand SE defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cigand SE scores more
61%
level
22%
Eger scores more
18%

Cigand SE at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cigand SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cigand SE vs Eger

Cigand SE beat Eger 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Cigánd Városi Stadion in Cigánd.