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Cigand SE vs Diósgyőr II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Cigand SE
Cigand SE
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
5/19/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 29Cigánd Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cigand SE58%
×Draw23%
Diósgyőr II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cigand SE
1.84
Diósgyőr II
0.96

Cigand SE creates 92% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 112 away

creates per match

Cigand SE
1.98
Diósgyőr II
1.30

allows per match

Cigand SE
0.62
Diósgyőr II
1.70

finishing

Cigand SE+0.00on par
Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cigand SE ↓

Diósgyőr II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cigand SE or draw
81%
Cigand SE or Diósgyőr II
77%
Draw or Diósgyőr II
42%

Winning margin

Cigand SE wins by 2+
33%
Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cigand SE 1+ goals
84%
Cigand SE 2+ goals
55%
Cigand SE 3+ goals
28%
Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
62%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
25%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cigand SE (draw refunded)
75%
Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cigand SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cigand SE attack 1.98 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.84

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + Cigand SE defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cigand SE scores more
58%
level
23%
Diósgyőr II scores more
19%

Cigand SE at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cigand SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Cigand SE 2–1 Diósgyőr II

Cigand SE beat Diósgyőr II 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Cigánd Városi Stadion in Cigánd.