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Cieza vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cieza
Cieza
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
11/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio de La Arboleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cieza48%
×Draw26%
Unión Molinense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cieza
1.48
Unión Molinense
0.99

Cieza creates 49% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 67 away

creates per match

Cieza
1.98
Unión Molinense
1.18

allows per match

Cieza
0.80
Unión Molinense
0.97

finishing

Cieza+0.00on par
Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cieza ↓

Unión Molinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cieza or draw
75%
Cieza or Unión Molinense
74%
Draw or Unión Molinense
52%

Winning margin

Cieza wins by 2+
24%
Unión Molinense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cieza 1+ goals
77%
Cieza 2+ goals
43%
Cieza 3+ goals
19%
Unión Molinense 1+ goals
63%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
26%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cieza (draw refunded)
66%
Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cieza at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.80 · 66 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cieza attack 1.98 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.48

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + Cieza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cieza scores more
48%
level
26%
Unión Molinense scores more
25%

Cieza at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cieza vs Unión Molinense

Cieza and Unión Molinense drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de La Arboleja in Cieza.