Cieza 5–1 UD Caravaca: Result & Stats

Cieza

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

UD Caravaca

10/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Estadio de La Arboleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cieza56%

×Draw23%

UD Caravaca21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiezaExpected goals in this matchUD Caravaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.98

Cieza

1.77

UD Caravaca

0.98

Cieza creates 81% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 83 away

1.98

creates per match

1.16

0.80

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Cieza

1.98

UD Caravaca

1.16

allows per match

Cieza

0.80

UD Caravaca

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cieza+0.00on par

UD Caravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cieza ↓

UD Caravaca →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cieza or draw

79%

Cieza or UD Caravaca

77%

Draw or UD Caravaca

44%

Winning margin

Cieza wins by 2+

31%

UD Caravaca wins by 2+

Team goals

Cieza 1+ goals

83%

Cieza 2+ goals

53%

Cieza 3+ goals

26%

UD Caravaca 1+ goals

62%

UD Caravaca 2+ goals

26%

UD Caravaca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cieza (draw refunded)

73%

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cieza at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.80 · 66 matches

UD Caravaca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cieza attack 1.98 + UD Caravaca defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.77

UD Caravaca attack 1.16 + Cieza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cieza scores more

56%

level

23%

UD Caravaca scores more

21%

Cieza at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff