Cieza 1–3 UCAM Murcia II: Result & Stats

Cieza

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

UCAM Murcia II

5/4/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio de La Arboleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cieza49%

×Draw25%

UCAM Murcia II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiezaExpected goals in this matchUCAM Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.06

Cieza

1.56

UCAM Murcia II

1.06

Cieza creates 47% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 110 away

1.98

creates per match

1.33

0.80

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Cieza

1.98

UCAM Murcia II

1.33

allows per match

Cieza

0.80

UCAM Murcia II

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cieza+0.00on par

UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cieza ↓

UCAM Murcia II →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cieza or draw

74%

Cieza or UCAM Murcia II

75%

Draw or UCAM Murcia II

51%

Winning margin

Cieza wins by 2+

25%

UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cieza 1+ goals

79%

Cieza 2+ goals

46%

Cieza 3+ goals

21%

UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals

65%

UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals

29%

UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cieza (draw refunded)

65%

UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cieza at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.80 · 66 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cieza attack 1.98 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.56

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Cieza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cieza scores more

49%

level

25%

UCAM Murcia II scores more

26%

Cieza at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff