Cieza 0–0 Racing Murcia: Result & Stats

Cieza

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Murcia

10/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Estadio de La Arboleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cieza50%

×Draw26%

Racing Murcia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiezaExpected goals in this matchRacing Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.96

Cieza

1.52

Racing Murcia

0.96

Cieza creates 58% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 62 away

1.98

creates per match

1.13

0.80

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Cieza

1.98

Racing Murcia

1.13

allows per match

Cieza

0.80

Racing Murcia

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cieza+0.00on par

Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cieza ↓

Racing Murcia →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cieza or draw

76%

Cieza or Racing Murcia

74%

Draw or Racing Murcia

50%

Winning margin

Cieza wins by 2+

26%

Racing Murcia wins by 2+

Team goals

Cieza 1+ goals

78%

Cieza 2+ goals

45%

Cieza 3+ goals

20%

Racing Murcia 1+ goals

62%

Racing Murcia 2+ goals

25%

Racing Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cieza (draw refunded)

68%

Racing Murcia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cieza at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.80 · 66 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cieza attack 1.98 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.52

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + Cieza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cieza scores more

50%

level

26%

Racing Murcia scores more

24%

Cieza at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff