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Cieza vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cieza
Cieza
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 4Estadio de La Arboleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Cieza70%
×Draw18%
Plus Ultra12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cieza
2.27
Plus Ultra
0.80

Cieza creates 184% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 63 away

creates per match

Cieza
1.98
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

Cieza
0.80
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

Cieza+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cieza ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cieza or draw
88%
Cieza or Plus Ultra
82%
Draw or Plus Ultra
30%

Winning margin

Cieza wins by 2+
47%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cieza 1+ goals
90%
Cieza 2+ goals
66%
Cieza 3+ goals
39%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
55%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
19%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cieza (draw refunded)
86%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cieza at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.80 · 66 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cieza attack 1.98 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.27

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Cieza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Cieza scores more
70%
level
18%
Plus Ultra scores more
12%

Cieza at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cieza 5–1 Plus Ultra

Cieza beat Plus Ultra 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de La Arboleja in Cieza.