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Cieza vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cieza
Cieza
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Javi Solsona 3'
Belencoso 67'
Tato 35'
11/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio de La Arboleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Cieza51%
×Draw26%
La Unión Atlético24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cieza
1.54
La Unión Atlético
0.96

Cieza creates 60% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cieza
1.98
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Cieza
0.80
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Cieza+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cieza ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cieza or draw
76%
Cieza or La Unión Atlético
74%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
49%

Winning margin

Cieza wins by 2+
26%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cieza 1+ goals
79%
Cieza 2+ goals
45%
Cieza 3+ goals
20%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
62%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
25%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cieza (draw refunded)
68%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cieza at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.80 · 66 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cieza attack 1.98 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.54

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Cieza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cieza scores more
51%
level
26%
La Unión Atlético scores more
24%

Cieza at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Javi Solsona
10'
Dani Díez← D. Denot
35'
Tato
46'
José Tolmos← José Piñera
46'
Wilber Hurtado← Choche Villalba
67'
Barberá← Juan Carlos
67'
Belencoso
70'
Higón← Belencoso
70'
Diego Gámiz← Vitolo
83'
Pelé← Luis Verdú
84'
Adrián Aguirre← Dani Díez
Cieza
La
Xabi Irureta
Irureta
Javi Rosa
Rosa
Mario Hernández
Hernández
Sergi Valls
Valls
Walter Navarro
Navarro
David Valdeolivas
Valdeoliv
D. Denot
▼
Denot
Monty
Monty
Vitolo
▼
Vitolo
Tato
⚽
Tato
Belencoso
⚽
▼
Belencoso
Tanis Marcellán
Marcellán
S. Villalba
Villalba
Luis Verdú
▼
Verdú
Alagy Oliveira
Oliveira
José María
María
Juan Carlos
▼
Carlos
Domi Pujante
Pujante
Choche Villalba
▼
Villalba
Nacho Pérez
Pérez
José Piñera
▼
Piñera
Javi Solsona
⚽
Solsona
José Lucas
Manager: José Lucas
46'▲José Tolmos←▼José Piñera
46'▲Wilber Hurtado←▼Choche Villalba
67'▲Barberá←▼Juan Carlos
83'▲Pelé←▼Luis Verdú

Cieza substitutes

TolmosHurtadoBarberáPelé
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
10'▲Dani Díez←▼D. Denot
70'▲Higón←▼Belencoso
70'▲Diego Gámiz←▼Vitolo
84'▲Adrián Aguirre←▼Dani Díez

La Unión Atlético substitutes

DíezHigónGámizAguirre

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cieza 1–2 La Unión Atlético

La Unión Atlético beat Cieza 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 6, 2022.

Goals: Javi Solsona (3'), Tato (35'), Belencoso (67').

The match was played at Estadio de La Arboleja in Cieza.