Cieza 3–0 Balsicas Atlético: Result & Stats

Cieza

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Balsicas Atlético

10/1/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 4Estadio de La Arboleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cieza61%

×Draw23%

Balsicas Atlético16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiezaExpected goals in this matchBalsicas Atlético

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.81

Cieza

1.81

Balsicas Atlético

0.81

Cieza creates 123% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

1.98

creates per match

0.82

0.80

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Cieza

1.98

Balsicas Atlético

0.82

allows per match

Cieza

0.80

Balsicas Atlético

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cieza+0.00on par

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cieza ↓

Balsicas Atlético →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cieza or draw

84%

Cieza or Balsicas Atlético

77%

Draw or Balsicas Atlético

39%

Winning margin

Cieza wins by 2+

35%

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+

Team goals

Cieza 1+ goals

84%

Cieza 2+ goals

54%

Cieza 3+ goals

27%

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals

56%

Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals

19%

Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cieza (draw refunded)

79%

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cieza at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.80 · 66 matches

Balsicas Atlético away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cieza attack 1.98 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.81

Balsicas Atlético attack 0.82 + Cieza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cieza scores more

61%

level

23%

Balsicas Atlético scores more

16%

Cieza at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff