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Balsicas Atlético vs Cieza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cieza
Cieza
2/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético29%
×Draw26%
Cieza44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.10
Cieza
1.42

Cieza creates 29% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
Cieza
1.42

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
Cieza
0.86

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
Cieza+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Cieza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
56%
Balsicas Atlético or Cieza
74%
Draw or Cieza
71%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
11%
Cieza wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
67%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
30%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
10%
Cieza 1+ goals
76%
Cieza 2+ goals
41%
Cieza 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
40%
Cieza (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Cieza away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.86 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Cieza defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cieza attack 1.42 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
29%
level
26%
Cieza scores more
44%

Cieza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Balsicas Atlético 0–2 Cieza

Cieza beat Balsicas Atlético 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 15, 2026.