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Cieza vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cieza
Cieza
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
3/22/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 27Estadio de La Arboleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cieza47%
×Draw27%
Atlético Pulpileño26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cieza
1.42
Atlético Pulpileño
0.98

Cieza creates 45% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 93 away

creates per match

Cieza
1.98
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Cieza
0.80
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Cieza+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cieza ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cieza or draw
74%
Cieza or Atlético Pulpileño
73%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
53%

Winning margin

Cieza wins by 2+
23%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cieza 1+ goals
76%
Cieza 2+ goals
41%
Cieza 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
26%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cieza (draw refunded)
64%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cieza at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.80 · 66 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cieza attack 1.98 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.42

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Cieza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cieza scores more
47%
level
27%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
26%

Cieza at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cieza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Cieza 1–1 Atlético Pulpileño

Cieza and Atlético Pulpileño drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio de La Arboleja in Cieza.