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Cienciano vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
10/6/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cienciano66%
×Draw19%
Union Huaral15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
2.27
Union Huaral
1.00

Cienciano creates 127% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 66 away

creates per match

Cienciano
2.89
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Cienciano
0.68
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
85%
Cienciano or Union Huaral
81%
Draw or Union Huaral
34%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
43%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
90%
Cienciano 2+ goals
66%
Cienciano 3+ goals
39%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
63%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
26%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
81%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 2.89 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.27

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Cienciano defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cienciano scores more
66%
level
19%
Union Huaral scores more
15%

Cienciano at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Cienciano 0–0 Union Huaral

Cienciano and Union Huaral drew 0-0 in Segunda División on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.