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Cienciano vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
8/5/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 18Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Cienciano80%
×Draw14%
Sport Victoria6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
2.60
Sport Victoria
0.60

Cienciano creates 333% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cienciano
2.89
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Cienciano
0.68
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
94%
Cienciano or Sport Victoria
86%
Draw or Sport Victoria
20%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
58%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
92%
Cienciano 2+ goals
73%
Cienciano 3+ goals
47%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
45%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
12%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
93%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 2.89 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.60

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Cienciano defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Cienciano scores more
80%
level
14%
Sport Victoria scores more
6%

Cienciano at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cienciano 1 – 0 Sport Victoria

Cienciano beat Sport Victoria 1-0 in Segunda División on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco).