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Cienciano vs LOS Caimanes — Segunda División 2018

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
6/16/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Cienciano77%
×Draw14%
LOS Caimanes9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
2.92
LOS Caimanes
0.92

Cienciano creates 217% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cienciano
2.89
LOS Caimanes
1.16

allows per match

Cienciano
0.68
LOS Caimanes
2.96

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
LOS Caimanes+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

LOS Caimanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
91%
Cienciano or LOS Caimanes
86%
Draw or LOS Caimanes
23%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
57%
LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
94%
Cienciano 2+ goals
78%
Cienciano 3+ goals
55%
LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
60%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
23%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
89%
LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

LOS Caimanes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 2.89 + LOS Caimanes defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.92

LOS Caimanes attack 1.16 + Cienciano defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Cienciano scores more
77%
level
14%
LOS Caimanes scores more
9%

Cienciano at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Cienciano 5–0 LOS Caimanes

Cienciano beat LOS Caimanes 5-0 in Segunda División on June 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.