Cienciano 3–1 Juan Aurich: Result & Stats

Cienciano

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Juan Aurich

12/2/2018

Segunda División · 3rd Place FinalEstadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cienciano67%

×Draw19%

Juan Aurich14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiencianoExpected goals in this matchJuan Aurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.96

Cienciano

2.29

Juan Aurich

0.96

Cienciano creates 139% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 69 away

2.89

creates per match

1.23

0.68

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Cienciano

2.89

Juan Aurich

1.23

allows per match

Cienciano

0.68

Juan Aurich

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par

Juan Aurich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Juan Aurich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw

86%

Cienciano or Juan Aurich

81%

Draw or Juan Aurich

33%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+

44%

Juan Aurich wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals

90%

Cienciano 2+ goals

66%

Cienciano 3+ goals

40%

Juan Aurich 1+ goals

62%

Juan Aurich 2+ goals

25%

Juan Aurich 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)

82%

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Juan Aurich away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 2.89 + Juan Aurich defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.29

Juan Aurich attack 1.23 + Cienciano defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cienciano scores more

67%

level

19%

Juan Aurich scores more

14%

Cienciano at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff