Cienciano 3–0 FC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

Cienciano

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

FC Cajamarca

N. Bandiera 41'

C. Garces 20', 1'

3/21/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Cienciano56%

×Draw24%

FC Cajamarca20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiencianoExpected goals in this matchFC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.92

Cienciano

1.73

FC Cajamarca

0.92

Cienciano creates 88% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 9 away

1.79

creates per match

0.78

1.05

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Cienciano

1.79

FC Cajamarca

0.78

allows per match

Cienciano

1.05

FC Cajamarca

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par

FC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

FC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw

80%

Cienciano or FC Cajamarca

76%

Draw or FC Cajamarca

44%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+

31%

FC Cajamarca wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals

82%

Cienciano 2+ goals

52%

Cienciano 3+ goals

25%

FC Cajamarca 1+ goals

60%

FC Cajamarca 2+ goals

23%

FC Cajamarca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)

74%

FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 106 matches

FC Cajamarca away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.79 + FC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC Cajamarca attack 0.78 + Cienciano defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cienciano scores more

56%

level

24%

FC Cajamarca scores more

20%

Cienciano at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Souza Espana

Cienciano · M

8.3

Match Events

1'

C. Garces

9'

Ricardo LagosCard upgrade

10'

Ricardo Lagos

20'

C. Garces↳ C. Souza Espana

32'

T. Andrade← M. Arrasco

41'

N. Bandiera

46'

M. Succar← N. Bandiera

46'

R. Aguilar← C. Nunez

46'

G. Aguirre← A. Robles

46'

H. Timana← P. Miguez

46'

B. Bernaola← M. Almiron

46'

C. Meza← E. Paucar

60'

R. Sandoval← C. Souza Espana

61'

S. Cavero← C. Garces

83'

P. Alegria← B. Palacios

88'

Alejandro HohbergGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CiencianoFC

Overview

70%Possession30%

28Total Shots1

4.74Expected Goals (xG)0.05

9Corners0

10Fouls7

Shots

28Total Shots1

14On Target0

10Off Target1

4Blocked0

18Inside Box1

10Outside Box0

Passing

70%Possession30%

484Total Passes224

419Accurate Passes144

87%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

Discipline

10Fouls7

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2