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Cienciano vs Deportivo Municipal — Primera División 2018

Cienciano
Cienciano
PST
20:00
Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
8/30/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Cienciano52%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Municipal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
1.77
Deportivo Municipal
1.14

Cienciano creates 55% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 102 away

creates per match

Cienciano
1.82
Deportivo Municipal
1.25

allows per match

Cienciano
1.02
Deportivo Municipal
1.73

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Deportivo Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
75%
Cienciano or Deportivo Municipal
77%
Draw or Deportivo Municipal
48%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
83%
Cienciano 2+ goals
53%
Cienciano 3+ goals
26%
Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
68%
Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.02 · 106 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.82 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Cienciano defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cienciano scores more
52%
level
23%
Deportivo Municipal scores more
25%

Cienciano at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cienciano host Deportivo Municipal

August 30, 2020: Cienciano take on Deportivo Municipal in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.