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Cienciano vs Deportivo Hualgayoc — Segunda División 2018

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
8/29/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cienciano66%
×Draw19%
Deportivo Hualgayoc16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
2.34
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.05

Cienciano creates 123% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cienciano
2.89
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.43

allows per match

Cienciano
0.68
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.79

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Deportivo Hualgayoc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
84%
Cienciano or Deportivo Hualgayoc
81%
Draw or Deportivo Hualgayoc
34%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
43%
Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
90%
Cienciano 2+ goals
67%
Cienciano 3+ goals
41%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
81%
Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 2.89 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.34

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 1.43 + Cienciano defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cienciano scores more
66%
level
19%
Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
16%

Cienciano at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cienciano vs Deportivo Hualgayoc

Cienciano beat Deportivo Hualgayoc 5-0 in Segunda División on August 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco).