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Cienciano vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2026

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
3/10/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Cienciano59%
×Draw22%
Comerciantes Unidos19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
1.90
Comerciantes Unidos
0.97

Cienciano creates 96% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 63 away

creates per match

Cienciano
1.81
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

allows per match

Cienciano
1.04
Comerciantes Unidos
1.98

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
81%
Cienciano or Comerciantes Unidos
78%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
41%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
35%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
85%
Cienciano 2+ goals
56%
Cienciano 3+ goals
29%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
62%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
25%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
76%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.04 · 107 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.81 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.90

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + Cienciano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cienciano scores more
59%
level
22%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
19%

Cienciano at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Cienciano 3–2 Comerciantes Unidos

Cienciano beat Comerciantes Unidos 3-2 in Primera División on March 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.