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Cienciano vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
10/23/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 18Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cienciano58%
×Draw23%
Carlos Stein19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
1.86
Carlos Stein
0.97

Cienciano creates 92% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cienciano
1.82
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Cienciano
1.02
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
81%
Cienciano or Carlos Stein
77%
Draw or Carlos Stein
42%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
34%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
84%
Cienciano 2+ goals
55%
Cienciano 3+ goals
28%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
62%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
25%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
75%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.02 · 106 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.82 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Cienciano defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cienciano scores more
58%
level
23%
Carlos Stein scores more
19%

Cienciano at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cienciano vs Carlos Stein

Cienciano beat Carlos Stein 6-2 in Primera División on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.