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Cienciano vs Atletico Grau — Primera División 2026

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
8/24/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Cienciano52%
×Draw25%
Atletico Grau23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
1.59
Atletico Grau
0.95

Cienciano creates 67% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 94 away

creates per match

Cienciano
1.81
Atletico Grau
0.86

allows per match

Cienciano
1.04
Atletico Grau
1.38

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Atletico Grau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
77%
Cienciano or Atletico Grau
75%
Draw or Atletico Grau
48%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
28%
Atletico Grau wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
80%
Cienciano 2+ goals
47%
Cienciano 3+ goals
21%
Atletico Grau 1+ goals
61%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
70%
Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.04 · 107 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.81 + Atletico Grau defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Atletico Grau attack 0.86 + Cienciano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cienciano scores more
52%
level
25%
Atletico Grau scores more
23%

Cienciano at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cienciano vs Atletico Grau

Cienciano beat Atletico Grau 1-0 in Primera División on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.