Cienciano 1–0 Alfredo Salinas: Result & Stats

Cienciano

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alfredo Salinas

5/27/2018

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cienciano83%

×Draw12%

Alfredo Salinas5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiencianoExpected goals in this matchAlfredo Salinas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.56

Cienciano

2.80

Alfredo Salinas

0.56

Cienciano creates 400% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

2.89

creates per match

0.43

0.68

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Cienciano

2.89

Alfredo Salinas

0.43

allows per match

Cienciano

0.68

Alfredo Salinas

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Alfredo Salinas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw

95%

Cienciano or Alfredo Salinas

88%

Draw or Alfredo Salinas

17%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+

63%

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals

94%

Cienciano 2+ goals

76%

Cienciano 3+ goals

52%

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals

43%

Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals

11%

Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)

94%

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 2.89 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.80

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Cienciano defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Cienciano scores more

83%

level

12%

Alfredo Salinas scores more

5%

Cienciano at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff