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Cienciano vs ADT — Primera División 2026

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
ADT
ADT
4/3/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Cienciano54%
×Draw24%
ADT22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
1.72
ADT
1.00

Cienciano creates 72% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 78 away

creates per match

Cienciano
1.81
ADT
0.97

allows per match

Cienciano
1.04
ADT
1.62

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

ADT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
78%
Cienciano or ADT
76%
Draw or ADT
46%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
30%
ADT wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
82%
Cienciano 2+ goals
51%
Cienciano 3+ goals
25%
ADT 1+ goals
63%
ADT 2+ goals
26%
ADT 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
71%
ADT (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.04 · 107 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.81 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.72

ADT attack 0.97 + Cienciano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cienciano scores more
54%
level
24%
ADT scores more
22%

Cienciano at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cienciano vs ADT

Cienciano beat ADT 3-2 in Primera División on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.