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Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Spoje Praha — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spoje Praha
Spoje Praha
4/7/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 21Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov49%
×Draw25%
Spoje Praha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.61
Spoje Praha
1.11

Cidlina Novy Bydzov creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Spoje Praha
0.80

allows per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Spoje Praha
1.80

finishing

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par
Spoje Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cidlina Novy Bydzov ↓

Spoje Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or draw
74%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov or Spoje Praha
75%
Draw or Spoje Praha
51%

Winning margin

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
26%
Spoje Praha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
80%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
48%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
22%
Spoje Praha 1+ goals
67%
Spoje Praha 2+ goals
30%
Spoje Praha 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
65%
Spoje Praha (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Spoje Praha away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.43 + Spoje Praha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.61

Spoje Praha attack 0.80 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
49%
level
25%
Spoje Praha scores more
26%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cidlina Novy Bydzov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Spoje Praha

Cidlina Novy Bydzov and Spoje Praha drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Nový Bydžov.