Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3–0 Slavia Hradec Králové

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Hradec Králové

5/18/2024

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 27Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov49%

×Draw23%

Slavia Hradec Králové28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cidlina Novy BydzovExpected goals in this matchSlavia Hradec Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.38

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.88

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.38

Cidlina Novy Bydzov creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.43

creates per match

1.33

1.43

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.43

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.33

allows per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov

1.43

Slavia Hradec Králové

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Slavia Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cidlina Novy Bydzov ↓

Slavia Hradec Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or draw

72%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or Slavia Hradec Králové

77%

Draw or Slavia Hradec Králové

51%

Winning margin

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+

27%

Slavia Hradec Králové wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals

85%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals

56%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals

29%

Slavia Hradec Králové 1+ goals

75%

Slavia Hradec Králové 2+ goals

40%

Slavia Hradec Králové 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)

63%

Slavia Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Slavia Hradec Králové away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.43 + Slavia Hradec Králové defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

Slavia Hradec Králové attack 1.33 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more

49%

level

23%

Slavia Hradec Králové scores more

28%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cidlina Novy Bydzov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff