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Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Náchod — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Náchod
Náchod
9/11/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 6Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov46%
×Draw24%
Náchod30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.71
Náchod
1.34

Cidlina Novy Bydzov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 54 away

creates per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Náchod
1.26

allows per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Náchod
1.98

finishing

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par
Náchod+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cidlina Novy Bydzov ↓

Náchod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or draw
70%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov or Náchod
76%
Draw or Náchod
54%

Winning margin

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
24%
Náchod wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
82%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
51%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
24%
Náchod 1+ goals
74%
Náchod 2+ goals
39%
Náchod 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
60%
Náchod (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Náchod away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.43 + Náchod defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.71

Náchod attack 1.26 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
46%
level
24%
Náchod scores more
30%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cidlina Novy Bydzov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Náchod

Cidlina Novy Bydzov beat Náchod 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Nový Bydžov.