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Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Dobrovice — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dobrovice
Dobrovice
6/2/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 29Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov53%
×Draw23%
Dobrovice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.79
Dobrovice
1.13

Cidlina Novy Bydzov creates 58% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Dobrovice
0.83

allows per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Dobrovice
2.15

finishing

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par
Dobrovice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cidlina Novy Bydzov ↓

Dobrovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or draw
76%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov or Dobrovice
77%
Draw or Dobrovice
47%

Winning margin

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
29%
Dobrovice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
83%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
53%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
26%
Dobrovice 1+ goals
68%
Dobrovice 2+ goals
31%
Dobrovice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
69%
Dobrovice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Dobrovice away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.43 + Dobrovice defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.79

Dobrovice attack 0.83 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
53%
level
23%
Dobrovice scores more
24%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cidlina Novy Bydzov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Dobrovice

Cidlina Novy Bydzov beat Dobrovice 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Nový Bydžov.