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Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Čáslav — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Čáslav
Čáslav
3/16/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 18Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov45%
×Draw23%
Čáslav32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.73
Čáslav
1.42

Cidlina Novy Bydzov creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 69 away

creates per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Čáslav
1.41

allows per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Čáslav
2.04

finishing

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par
Čáslav+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cidlina Novy Bydzov ↓

Čáslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or draw
68%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov or Čáslav
77%
Draw or Čáslav
55%

Winning margin

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
24%
Čáslav wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
82%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
52%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
25%
Čáslav 1+ goals
76%
Čáslav 2+ goals
41%
Čáslav 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
59%
Čáslav (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Čáslav away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.04 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.43 + Čáslav defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.73

Čáslav attack 1.41 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
45%
level
23%
Čáslav scores more
32%

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cidlina Novy Bydzov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Čáslav

Cidlina Novy Bydzov and Čáslav drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Nový Bydžov.