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Cibao vs Universidad O&M — Liga Mayor 2025

Cibao
Cibao
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Universidad O&M
Universidad O&M
J. Murillo 83'
J. De La Cruz Mangas 73'
R. Correa 30', 26' (pen)
R. Caicedo 89'
S. Paredes 86'
1/31/2026Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Winners Stage - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cibao53%
×Draw22%
Universidad O&M25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cibao
1.98
Universidad O&M
1.29

Cibao creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Cibao
2.33
Universidad O&M
1.25

allows per match

Cibao
1.33
Universidad O&M
1.63

finishing

Cibao+0.00on par
Universidad O&M+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cibao ↓

Universidad O&M →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cibao or draw
75%
Cibao or Universidad O&M
78%
Draw or Universidad O&M
47%

Winning margin

Cibao wins by 2+
31%
Universidad O&M wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cibao 1+ goals
86%
Cibao 2+ goals
59%
Cibao 3+ goals
31%
Universidad O&M 1+ goals
72%
Universidad O&M 2+ goals
37%
Universidad O&M 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cibao (draw refunded)
68%
Universidad O&M (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cibao at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Universidad O&M away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cibao attack 2.33 + Universidad O&M defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.98

Universidad O&M attack 1.25 + Cibao defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cibao scores more
53%
level
22%
Universidad O&M scores more
25%

Cibao at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cibao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
R. CorreaPenalty
30'
R. Correa
73'
J. De La Cruz Mangas
83'
J. Murillo
86'
S. Paredes
89'
R. Caicedo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cibao vs Universidad O&M

Cibao beat Universidad O&M 4-2 in Liga Mayor on January 31, 2026.

Goals: R. Correa (26' pen, 30'), J. De La Cruz Mangas (73'), J. Murillo (83'), S. Paredes (86'), R. Caicedo (89').