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Cianorte vs Uberlandia — Serie D 2025

Cianorte
Cianorte
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Uberlandia
Uberlandia
Caique 90' (pen)
Danrley 18'
Nathan Palafoz 7'
Mage 57', 45'
6/14/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Olímpico Albino Turbay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cianorte41%
×Draw28%
Uberlandia31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cianorte
1.27
Uberlandia
1.06

Cianorte creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cianorte
1.68
Uberlandia
1.33

allows per match

Cianorte
0.79
Uberlandia
0.87

finishing

Cianorte+0.00on par
Uberlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte ↓

Uberlandia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cianorte or draw
69%
Cianorte or Uberlandia
72%
Draw or Uberlandia
59%

Winning margin

Cianorte wins by 2+
18%
Uberlandia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cianorte 1+ goals
72%
Cianorte 2+ goals
36%
Cianorte 3+ goals
14%
Uberlandia 1+ goals
65%
Uberlandia 2+ goals
29%
Uberlandia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cianorte (draw refunded)
57%
Uberlandia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Uberlandia away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte attack 1.68 + Uberlandia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.27

Uberlandia attack 1.33 + Cianorte defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cianorte scores more
41%
level
28%
Uberlandia scores more
31%

Cianorte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Nathan Palafoz
18'
Danrley
45'
Mage
57'
Mage
90'
CaiquePenalty
Cianorte
Uberlandia
Renato Peixe
Manager: Renato Peixe
Alexandre Lopes
Manager: Alexandre Lopes

Match Recap: Cianorte vs Uberlandia

Cianorte beat Uberlandia 3-2 in Serie D on June 14, 2025.

Goals: Nathan Palafoz (7'), Danrley (18'), Mage (45', 57'), Caique (90' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Olímpico Albino Turbay in Cianorte, Paraná.